Economic uncertainty worries business owners
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October 02, 2008 - 09:49 AM

Comics and gaming store Docking Bay 93 doesn’t have enough merchandise to fill its shelves, and owner Dan Macken worries how he’ll expand the store’s offerings of comic books, board games and trading cards.

Macken took over the Mount Vernon store last year and didn’t have enough of a credit history to get a loan to bolster his store’s stock.

“It’s something I still want to do, I just don’t have the cash flow to do it,” Macken said. With the nation now in the grips of a credit crunch, he’s doubting the outlook will improve any time soon.

Macken said every business owner is concerned about the plummeting stocks on Wall Street, but like many others in Skagit County, his situation is a mixed bag. While he doesn’t know if he can get a loan for his store, he is selling more merchandise this year and thinks he can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Older, established businesses are in a better position to ride through the economic storm, though their security also depends on what they’re selling.

Chuck Posey, general manager of Frontier Building Supply in Anacortes, said most of that company’s clients are custom home builders who haven’t been hit as hard as developers of spec homes, which are built before there’s a buyer.

“That has lessened the impact on us,” he said. But he acknowledges that some impact remains.

“It’s affecting everyone. I guess it’s a matter of degree,” Posey said.

Posey’s and Macken’s experiences share a common trait with many other businesses around Skagit Valley — uncertainty in the future.

The big mystery

Many business people interviewed Wednesday said the effect of Wall Street’s troubles on locally owned businesses remains a mystery. For every business reporting lower than usual sales, there’s another that says sales are steady or growing.

Some believe times could become difficult, while others are convinced the market will rebound.

“I think the market has a lot more resiliency than people believe,” Posey said.

The only thing that’s clear is that there’s no clear solution.

“I’m like everyone else, I have a 401(k), I have investments, and I don’t want to see them go down the tube,” Posey said. “But at the same time do we really want to spend $700 billion to correct a problem that may correct itself?”

He said his opinion of the situation last week changed over the past few days as the market tumbled and bounced back.

The bailout bill failed, some banks failed, assets were bought, “and life has gone on,” Posey said. “There is risk in a capitalistic system.”

As Congress reconsiders bailing out Wall Street at taxpayer expense, his advice would be: “Slow down and take a breath.”

Al Lyon, owner of Lyon’s Furniture and Sleep Center in downtown Mount Vernon, is also taking the long view.

“It’s not as bad as everyone makes it seem,” Lyon said. “People are still out doing their everyday functions of life — working and shopping.”

He said people have continued shopping at his store despite what’s happening on the national level.

“In some ways it’s a cleansing. The weak go to the wayside, and the strong get stronger,” he said.

Rudy Kerkvliet, owner of Craft Stoves in Mount Vernon, has seen almost a quarter-century of economic ups and downs. These days, his customers are still buying.

“Where we see a little bit of decline is in new construction, but that’s been offset by other people changing out their older wood stoves for cleaner-burning ones,” he said.

But then, he noted, people often turn their attention to their homes during a downturn.

“It may hurt down the road, but at this time, we’re not seeing it,” Kerkvliet said.

On the road

The downturn is certainly being felt on the road, particularly for car buyers with less-than-stellar credit.

Tightening credit has squeezed local car dealerships primarily at the low end of the credit spectrum, according to dealership managers and bank officials.

Customers with good credit can still get loans, but the days of “no credit, no problem” are disappearing, they said.

“The loans are still there. The terms may be a little different than they were a year ago,” said Todd Pietzsch, spokesman for BECU — the largest credit union in Washington, valued at $8.6 billion.

“It is very difficult for people with lower credit scores to do what they want to do to buy a car,” said Connor Ryan, general manager of the Jerry Smith Auto Group, with dealerships in Burlington, Anacortes and Bellingham.

“Over the last few months to the last year, the availability of funds for people with challenged credit has gotten lower and lower,” Ryan said.

A greater threat to dealerships is the status of their own line of credit to purchase more cars for their lots.

“Dealers that are closing their doors right now are not closing their doors because they can’t write a loan (to their customers), but because their banks are saying they’re not interested in paying the bills anymore,” Ryan said.

Business was down 20 percent at Skagit Valley Hyundai in September compared to a typical month, General Manager John Roosma said. But he blamed less foot traffic, not tight credit, for the downturn.

“Our rates haven’t gone up or anything,” Roosma said. “That does not seem to be an issue that is causing us a lot of problems.”

On the farm

Farmers need to take out loans regularly to pay the up-front costs for their annual crops. But so far, farmers who deal with the government-backed Northwest Farm Credit Services haven’t felt the credit pinch, according to the company’s chief financial officer.

“For us there really hasn’t been a change in the last week or the last month or the last six months,” Northwest Farm CFO Tom Nikano said.

“So far, it’s business as usual from our standpoint.”

Interest rates are bound to rise for private banks that lend to farmers and Northwest Farm, Nikano said.

“People are starting to focus on the risk and the credit losses. Rates are going to start to trend up across the board,” he said.

‘Preventive medicine’

Traci Stark, a business advisor at the Economic Development Association of Skagit County, said she’s received a stream of calls from people wanting to know how to respond to Wall Street’s woes.

Watching the last two weeks of a tumultuous change in the economy prompted Stark and Economic Development Association of Skagit County Executive Director Don Wick to expedite a business education program and new personnel hire. They originally planned to hire James McCafferty to run the educational program for local businesses beginning 2009. Instead McCafferty started last week in response to the economic crisis.

“What we’re doing is offering some preventive medicine,” Wick said.

Stark said she expects many local businesses will struggle to acquire loans in the coming months, and she’s already seen some good companies turned down. She said she advises businesses to focus on their strengths and what they can do without borrowing.

“Even today, in uncertain times, there have been a number that have been tremendously successful stores,” Stark said.

Assistant City Editor Colette Weeks and staff writer Tahlia Ganser contributed to this report.

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