School leaders coping with declining enrollment as young families struggle to stay here

Soleil McCain will start first grade next year.

But it won’t be in Anacortes.

The 6-year-old’s family is moving to Camano Island before school starts in the fall.

“When we moved here last fall my husband was a yacht broker,” said mom Krystal McCain.

But with the economy reeling and boat sales scarce, the couple opted to take a new route. They are opening a West Side Pizza franchise on Camano Island.

“It’s unfortunate because this is a nice community,” McCain said. “We were pleased this year.”

Many families like the McCains are leaving Anacortes for financial, and other, reasons. As they leave — and fewer families with young children move in — the school district must say goodbye to big chunks of state funding as well. Declining enrollment has drained money from our schools for the past three years. And the trend is expected to continue another five years before enrollment levels out.

The financial fallout has Anacortes School District cutting some programs and staff, re-evaluating what remains and looking at creative ways to continue delivering quality education.

“I expect us to continue to get smaller over the next few years. That doesn’t mean we can’t get better,” Superintendent Chris Borgen said. “While we have gotten smaller, we’re retaining good programs.”

A big part of the school district’s budget comes down to a simple numbers game:  With fewer students the district gets less money and can pay fewer teachers — by far its biggest expense.

The district gets about $5,300 from the state for each student enrolled. When school starts in September, the district expects about 2,620 students. That’s down about 4 percent from September 2008, and it’s the fourth year in a row enrollment has declined.

It means state funding will drop almost $600,000.

The decline comes after a roughly 20-year stretch of rising enrollment that flattened out about 1999. School officials cite a variety of reasons for the drop, most of which relate to the changing demographics in the community, the high cost of housing and the lack of jobs.

It’s a formula that favors older, more affluent families — not young couples starting out with kids in elementary school.

“Anacortes is becoming a little more mature,” said Mount Erie Elementary School Principal Bob Knorr, who has watched Anacortes’ changing demographics also change the school population. “The people who can afford to come here are at a different stage in their life.”

“You’re not seeing the young families coming in,” said Patrick Harrington, Anacortes Middle School principal.

“Our big issue right now is not that we have so many people leaving. The key issue is that we don’t have people coming to replace them,” said Bernie Selting, Island View Elementary School principal. “We have the lowest turnover that I’ve seen in 15 years. It was not unusual three or four years ago to lose a dozen kids in a month and now we’re losing two or three.”

“The reality is there are not a lot of sustainable family incomes in our area. I think that still plays a factor here,” Borgen said.

Selting agreed jobs are a sticking point.

“A significant number of people who have moved have gone to another state,” he said. “They are consolidating families for security reasons and lack of jobs — moving in with grandma and grandpa or aunt and uncle. It’s really consolidating.”

The Anacortes Boys and Girls Club has seen the impact as well.

Angela Freeberg, unit director, said its membership reflects the district’s declining enrollment. It has been particularly visible this year.

“Given the state of the economy many hardworking families simply cannot afford to live in Anacortes,” she said. “I have had many of our families move out of Anacortes in the past year. Many of them are relocating closer to their extended family where they will have a greater support system.”

Harrington said one mom called just before school started in the fall to let him know the family wasn’t coming back. Her husband worked in Bellingham and they ended up moving.

“They just couldn’t see continuing that — paying what Anacortes is and paying the gas,” Harrington said. “It was a tough decision. That’s why they waited so long.”

Anacortes is relatively alone in the region with its enrollment decline. Many surrounding districts aren’t seeing similar drops. The Conway, La Conner and Oak Harbor districts are all expecting enrollment to stay stable. Burlington-Edison and Mount Vernon are both expecting slight drops.

Sedro-Woolley is the only other nearby district dealing with similar shrinking pains. It is also predicting enrollment will drop nearly 4 percent next school year.

Knorr said the shared decline may be because both communities are farther off I-5.

When local job opportunities decline, people move out to places like Mount Vernon where it is easier to commute to jobs outside the county.

The district has been here before.

From the late 1960s through the 1970s, Anacortes schools saw a steady drop in enrollment.

At the time, the city was seeing a decline in waterfront industries and the closing of mills and canneries. The community started to see a shift in demographics with the development of Skyline, where fewer families with kids were moving in.

“They were pretty much out of price range for beginning families,” Knorr said.

The district gained a little ground in the early 1980s and then began a steady climb until the late 1990s, hitting a high point of 3,138 students in 1998.

It was a time of growth for the city, with the refineries doing well and boat building and other marine industries coming in to replace the lost canneries.

“As the community adjusted to the loss of these industries they found other industries to replace those,” Knorr said.

The district is now in a cycle of decline again.

“It’s a slight decline. It’s not falling off the edge of the Earth,” Knorr said. “It’s not like you have 500 students drop off at one time.”

One positive point about declining enrollment is it is due to outside sources, Knorr said. It doesn’t reflect the community’s perception of the schools or the quality of education being delivered.

The district isn’t dealing with school controversy, like people questioning the superintendent or teachers, Knorr said. It also doesn’t fall prey to large numbers of families opting for private schools or home schooling.

“We offer enough that parents know they’re getting a good education here,” Harrington said.

Because Anacortes offers school choice, the enrollment decline is spread across the entire district.

That means the district is doing a continuous juggling act.

“We’re always trying to balance between buildings,” Selting said.

If four kids move out of one school, the next kids who come in are placed there.

“It’s not consistent across grades and it’s unpredictable. This year we had increases at first grade and dramatic decreases at second and fifth grades,” Selting said.

School leaders have to look at programs as a system — possibly consolidating some or shifting them to serve the most kids efficiently.

Knorr said that can mean tough questions.

“What do we do to support our education programs? Do we keep the after-school program when we’re having trouble with our in-school programs?” he asked. “Those are really tough choices based on enrollment. As those kids go down we have less money to operate those programs.”

At the elementary level that means looking at programs like sports and after-school art. The parks department and community groups also offer programs, and they may be able to meet the need.

“Schools are not cutting quality but we’re having to scale back because we’re getting smaller,” Knorr said.

The middle school generally isn’t hit as hard with enrollment, Harrington said, because they only have students for two years.

“We don’t get to see the big impacts,” he said. “We’re able to balance things out with one being lighter and one being heavier.”

Having fewer students means limiting programs and offering fewer electives.

Five years ago the school was able to support a drama class and more art programs. Some have now been rolled over into clubs that meet after school.

“It hits those electives because they’re electives,” Harrington said. “We didn’t do away with it. Now they meet after school for a few hours.”

He said it’s not necessarily a bad thing.

“You have to be very creative,” he said. “We’re being careful that we’re not cutting things that we want in the future.”

Sports is an area he doesn’t see reducing, even if the school has to increase fees to keep the programs. Harrington said sports and after-school activities are important at middle school.

“It’s a great time to be part of the school, spend time with friends and it’s a great time to try things out,” he said.

Anacortes High School has possibly the most difficult juggling act as it gets smaller. It’s not as simple as having one less fourth-grade teacher, said Pam Estvold, AHS principal.

The school is planning to see about 10 percent fewer students walk through the doors in September.

But even with fewer students, the school still has to offer classes required for graduation, like math, science, English and social studies, as well as electives.

“When you get to be a small high school there is always that core curriculum that has to be in place,” Estvold said.

Like at the middle school, the number of elective and variety narrows.

“(Teachers) can only teach so many subjects,” she said. “We have to weigh that as we plan.”

High school leaders also have to take into account students’ high school and beyond plans.

“You can’t eliminate a class that students are planning to take in their four-year plan,” Estvold said.

As the school gets smaller, she said the focus is still on making sure students are college/work ready. That means keep programs like Advanced Placement and AVID.

“The district is really committed to make sure we grow our Advanced Placement program,” Estvold said. “For our kids to be competitive at a four-year college they need to take AP. That is a program we will continue to grow no matter our size.”

But being smaller does mean some classes will disappear.

The high school’s stagecraft class is now an after school club. After having low jazz band numbers this year, it will not be offered next year as a class.

“If that grows we’ll add that next year,” Estvold said.

There are many factors in deciding which classes to keep, she said, including graduation requirements, student interest, high school plans and what teachers can teach. It also comes down to funding and juggling class sizes.

Estvold said AP, career and technical education and support classes tend to have fewer students.

“When you have so many of those small classes you have more kids in the other classes,” she said.

There is no magic number for class size. It’s all about balance, she said.

Declining enrollment has brought some new opportunities along with the headaches.

The Whitney Early Childhood Education Center is a result of fewer students.

“The declining enrollment allowed Whitney to become what it is,” said Kevin Schwartz, Whitney principal. “It’s provided us opportunities to increase our early childhood programs because we have the space.”

The district started transitioning the one-time elementary school to an early childhood center in 2006.

The district is required by law to provide services for kids birth to 21 or refer them to outside programs. Declining enrollment allowed the district to expand its offerings to younger kids and lease out space to other programs that focus on pre-kindergarten skills.

The district leases space to three programs now and will add a fourth next year.

As the rest of the district is seeing fewer students, Schwartz said Whitney is holding its own.

“We’re fuller here than we ever have been,” he said. “While the district is seeing declining enrollment, we’re full.”

When Schwartz taught preschool four years ago at the site class sizes were up to 10 students. Now the two preschool classes each have 14 kids.

The birth to 3 program used to see about five kids a year and is now at around 25.

A boost from a two-year $533,000 Gates grant is helping the school find kids who need help and getting them ready for school.

On an average day there are 155 kids at the site. He expects that to increase to close to 200 next year.

Schwartz said he isn’t seeing a lot of turnover in full-day kindergarten either. Once students start, they stay. There are 71 kids in the program now after starting the year with 65.

“We aren’t seeing turnover here,” he said.

Schwartz said he hopes the early childhood programs will be able to remain at the campus.

“Whitney is a perfect place for it. It’s tailor-made,” he said. “It’s going to be a tough sell when you look at diminishing resources.”

Though what the future will bring is uncertain, school leaders are doing everything they can to try to predict where the district is going.

Earlier this year it hired a consultant to do a demographics analysis and enrollment projections. By looking at state, county and city trends, the resulting study will help the district get a handle on what may be coming.

Knorr said the district will face challenges with facilities and student groupings but its core values will stay the same.

“Do we have to become a different district because of it? No,” he said.

At some point that may mean looking at how the district is organized.

“We’re going to have to start looking at putting schools together,” Harrington said.

The middle school and high school are already thinking collectively to offer the best options for students.

“We’re going to start looking at seven through 12,” Estvold said.

Next year, some eighth-graders will be going to the high school for choir, French and geometry, and there may be more sharing of staff and students in the future.

“As we get smaller you’ll see more of that,” she said. “That’s how you keep your electives.”

It’s not a new idea.

When she was in middle school, Estvold was part of her high school’s marching band. 

“We are getting to that point where we need our seventh- and eighth-graders helping us,” she said. “That’s a win-win for our kids. We’re going to continue to be creative with our resources.”

It’s also possible to combine some classes, like beginning and advanced drawing.

“We get creative like that. I believe in thinking outside the box to meet the needs of kids today,” Estvold said.

She said community members have also offered to help.

“We will open our doors to people who want to help us to keep programs,” Estvold said. “It takes a village as the saying goes.”

No matter how much planning the district does, it can never completely know what is going to happen. Families this year may be waiting until the end of the school year to decide whether to stay or leave — which could have an impact on next year’s enrollment.

“When school gets out it could be ugly,” Harrington said.

School leaders are trying to be conservative as they plan and budget for 2009-2010.

Everyone is still concerned about the economy, and officials want to be able to handle larger than expected declines when school starts.

“I’m not taking a lot of chances,” Borgen said. “I’m probably more conservative because of those factors.”

But Borgen is optimistic that Anacortes will always be a draw for people.

“We see a lot of families that choose Anacortes schools because of our reputation,” he said. “Families come because of the quality of education and obviously the quality of the community.”

News editor Elaine Walker contributed to this story

School finances

The Anacortes School District gets about $5,300 from the state for each student enrolled.

Declining enrollment packs a big financial wallop. With fewer students the district gets less money and can pay fewer teachers, by far its biggest expense.

The district’s budget is about $28 million for the 2008-2009 school year.

State funding, based on the district’s enrollment, makes up about 66 percent of the district’s general fund budget. Local property taxes make up about 23 percent and other local nontax funding makes up about 3 percent. About 5 percent comes from the federal government. The remaining comes from grants and other funding sources.

Most of the district’s money goes to pay for people — more than 80 percent of its budget pays for salaries and benefits. About 7 percent goes to supplies and materials and about 9 percent to contract services. The remaining goes to travel, capital outlay and transfers.

For a look at the district’s 2008-2009 budget or its progress toward a 2009-2010 budget, visit the district’s Web site at http://www.asd103.org. Click on district and drag down to departments and then business and finance.