To help leaders predict future enrollment numbers, the Anacortes School District hired a consultant earlier this year to do a demographics analysis and enrollment projections.

The study was completed by John Fotheringham and Keith Bigelow. Fotheringham is a private consultant conducting management reviews, fiscal studies and superintendent searches for Northwest schools districts.

Using indicators at the state, county and local level, the study helps the district predict what it could look like in the future. It looked at areas like population history and forecast, birth rates, public school enrollment, in-migration and number of driver’s licenses.

Locally, it also analyzed housing, employment, the district’s enrollment history and other factors like Naval Air Station Whidbey Island and why students leave the district.

It projects Anacortes’ kindergarten enrollment will stay around 180 students. The study predicts the district’s total enrollment will continue to go down and plateau around 2,450 students around 2014.

The consultants suggested district leaders should watch certain trends to help gauge enrollment:

• Kindergarten enrollments that are significantly different from the report’s projections.

• Changes in the age of residents moving in and out of the community.

• Housing costs compared to neighboring communities.

• Closure of retail outlets or service-providing enterprises.

• New or additions to manufacturing or retail firms offering employment opportunities.

• Reductions of workforce in existing major industries.

• Significant changes in the number of student attendance waivers in or out of Anacortes schools.

• Major increases or decreases in state or county population.

• Changes in the number of employees at Naval Air Station Whidbey Island.

• Reduction of ferry runs with subsequent job losses.

• Overall improvement or decline in economic conditions that could result in vitalizing or diminishing opportunities for a younger work force in Anacortes.

Population

The study shows Anacortes’ population is increasing, from about 7,800 in 1968 to about 16,640 in 2008.

As the population has increased so has the age of people moving here.

The study compares 1990 census data to 2000 census data. It shows an increase in the number of people in the over 65 age group and the 55-64, 45-54, 35-44 and 10-19 groups. The largest increase is in the 45-54 group.

But there are fewer people in the 20-34 age group, which includes many people who have elementary-age children.

The numbers stayed about the same in the 5-9 and under 5 groups.

Compared to the county, Anacortes was 10 percentage points higher in the 45 and over groups in 2000, 5 percentage points lower in the 20-34 group and 4 percentage points lower in the 19 and under group.

Numbers also show more people need additional financial support in the district. The district has seen an 28 percent increase in the number of free and reduced meal applications, from 682 in 1998 to 876 in 2007.

Housing and employment

Average and median sale prices are higher here than nearby communities, like Mount Vernon and Oak Harbor. Prices may mean some families are opting to buy in a nearby community where they can spend less on housing.

In 2008, the average sale price here was $410,000. In Oak Harbor it was $304,000 and in Mount Vernon it was $291,000. In 2008, the median sale price here was $370,000. In Oak Harbor it was $262,000 and in Mount Vernon it was $260,000.

The major employers in Anacortes are in health care, petroleum, education, casino, food products, government, shipyard, retail grocery, marine services retail seafood, industrial products and port operations. Wages range from $113,114 to $14,511 with an average of $35,253.

Anacortes enrollment

Enrollment has fluctuated but generally grew after 1980, reaching its highest level in 1998 with 3,138 students. It has since declined.

Looking at enrollment by grade comparisons, the schools are seeing more students in the higher grades. The situation was the opposite in 1992.

The study shows students from NAS Whidbey make up about 5 percent of the district’s total enrollment with 153 kids in 2008. The majority are concentrated at the elementary level (115).

Most students who withdrew from the district in 2008-2009 did because the family moved (69). Other reasons for leaving the district were job transfer (26), other programs/schools (24), military transfer (16), unknown (13), homeschool (8), foreign exchange (6) and foster care change (5).