If anything is as certain as death or taxes, it’s that the cost of doing government business will keep rising. So when the money governments rely on starts to dry up, something’s got to give.

Skagit County and city governments have responded to their budget squeezes by laying off workers and curtailing services.

More than 40 government positions have been eliminated in the county. Most are in county government, which had employed almost 700 earlier this year.

The city of Mount Vernon cut five jobs. Burlington and Anacortes plan to leave some vacant positions open until revenue improves.

For the governments’ customers, the members of the public, those unfilled vacancies are sometimes felt the most. Top sheriff’s officials understand the realities of trimming $3.7 million from the county’s general budget, even when there’s little fat to trim. Even so, they have reluctantly accepted the news that a vacant deputy’s position won’t be filled next year.

The timing is unfortunate, according to sheriff’s officials, because with the economic downturn could come an uptick in both violent and property-related crimes.

“We’re really concerned about crime going up during hard times,” Undersheriff Wayne Dowhaniuk said. “Bad checks, burglaries, domestics — all those things go up.”

Having one less deputy can lead to longer response times and pose an increased risk to those deputies who are on the roads, Dowhaniuk said.

“Another deputy floating around can back up a deputy or respond faster,” he said. “We don’t anticipate it being a big problem, but it depends on the circumstances.”

Few government jobs happen in full view of the public. This summer, however, visitors to Clear Lake are sure to notice if Skagit County follows through with its decision to cut the lifeguards out of the 2009 budget.

The swimming area draws 10,000 visitors annually. Many are from other counties, including Whatcom, that have already closed their outdoor supervised swimming areas.

“That’s one of the things we’re up against here. Cutting these kind of things has been a trend,” said Bob Vaux, the county’s parks and recreation director.

Vaux did not recommend to commissioners that they cut the lifeguards from the budget. Vaux said the fees charged at Clear Lake almost cover the cost of concession employees and lifeguards.

He said his department may try to rescue the lifeguard positions by raising fees at the lake.

County parks is cutting 30 percent of its employees and at least 50 percent of its seasonal staff.

Vaux said he hopes to minimize the impacts of the cuts for park visitors. Staff may mow the grass or empty the trash less often, he said.

Mount Vernon Parks and Recreation had its budget cut by $100,000, to $1.6 million for 2009. Parks Director Larry Otos said he expects bigger crowds next year, and his department will be hard pressed to keep up.

While Otos has no formal way to track park usage, he can tell from the number of “mutt mitts” dog walkers are using that demand for his department’s services are on the rise.

“Our parks are a pretty well kept up and that will slip a little bit,” Otos said. “It is going to be tougher, I think, to just maintain our level of services, and that is mowing the grass, emptying out the garbage cans and cleaning the toilets.”

At least one recreation event, such as the Soap Box Derby or Easter egg hunt, will be canceled.

And there may be fewer mutt mitts on hand.

County Planning and Development Services has seen the economic decline firsthand. The planning department cut 17 percent of its staff in response to a decline in subdivision applications by more than half from 2007 to 2008. Over the same period, the number of building permits on new homes fell 28 percent.

The planning department has prioritized customer service in recent years, but as a result of the cuts people may wait in longer lines or wait longer for their permits to be reviewed — if business picks up, that is.

But that’s not what Planning Director Gary Christensen anticipates. His department is preparing for even fewer development applications in 2009, although Christensen cautioned that such predictions are difficult to make.

“It’s not looking any better in ’09, and ’08 was terrible,” Christensen said.

Jana Hanson, Mount Vernon’s Community and Economic Development Director, said her department is on pace to process about half the building permits for single-family homes in 2008 as it did in 2007.

The department lost a development review engineer and a building inspector, but Hanson said the decreasing demand for planning and permitting services means there will be “absolutely no change” in the level of service next year.

All these cuts are intended to meet lower revenue projections. The question is, how low will the economy go in 2009?

When it comes to preparing for next year, finance directors across the county say they don’t know any more than the big-time economists in Washington, D.C. or Wall Street. Most government officials are going conservative for 2009. In other words, they expect even less sales tax revenue next year.

Mount Vernon’s 2009 budget assumes another 4 percent drop in sales tax revenue, on top of this year’s projected 11 percent decline. Finance Director Alicia Huschka said during a recent budget meeting that even that projection is optimistic.

In La Conner, Finance Director Lorraine Taylor expects about $375,000 in sales tax revenue next year, down from more than $424,000 in 2007. Burlington, which has been comparatively flush in recent years with its large retail core, expects sales tax revenue to fall 8 percent next year.

County government leaders are more optimistic. The commissioners approved a budget for 2009 with no change in sales tax revenue compared to this year.

Officials are hoping the new destination-based state sales tax, which favors rural areas over cities, will keep revenues from declining further. In 2008, sales tax revenues dropped 8 percent compared to 2007.

County investments are expected to drop precipitously next year, to $1.4 million, or half of what the county earned with its investments in 2007.

With an admittedly optimistic sales tax projection, and more cuts expected when the state approves its budget early next year, the county is in a risky position, county Administrator Tim Holloran said.

“We’re hoping this is a prudent enough approach, but we’ll be watching our trends monthly,” Holloran said.

Ralph Schwartz can be reached at 360-416-2138 or . Elliott Wilson can be reached at 360-416-2147 or .